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In a previous post, I contended that the presidential race will go to the most “salty” candidate—Trump. I’m now going out on a limb to predict the Electoral College vote outcome:

  • Donald J. Trump – 304
  • Hillary R. Clinton – 234

Here’s my map that I created on Real Clear Politics:

Screen Shot 2016-07-23 at 11.45.10 AMTo students of such things there are some surprises here that bear explanation:

  • Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin — I believe that Trump’s message resonates with the blue-color, Reagan Democrats in these states. These people are fed up with the Washington establishment and will jump on an outsider. How many winning candidates have portrayed themselves as outsiders in previous elections? They all run on that mantra. Very few are truly outsiders. Ronald Reagan was perhaps the last true outsider and we know how he did.
  • Virginia — the last time the Old Dominion went Republican was 2004 and with Kaine as Hillary’s running mate, it’s not likely to swing Republican this time.
  • Ohio — Ohio has picked the loser just twice since 1896 and I don’t expect it to go Clinton this time.

Other factors:

  • The populace is hungry for change, for an outsider, for the salty candidate—Clinton is the ultimate insider and her choice of Kaine as running mate is strictly mainstream. She did not shake up the race at all. One could argue that Pence is also mainstream, but he will help Trump with states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Kaine helps with Virginia, which Hillary was probably going to win anyway.
  • While both candidates have a high unlikeable factor—only one is perceived as having “gotten away with it.” The American public doesn’t like it when they think someone has “gotten away with it”—This will linger and hurt Hillary in November.
  • The country is in turmoil and right or wrong, people are going to blame the current administration and Clinton.
  • The world is unsafe and terrorism is not under control—this is the low hanging fruit for Trump. Forget John Kerry, Hillary planted what we are now reaping.
  • Some are seeing parallels to the 1968 election, but I agree with someone who wrote that it’s more like 1980 with closer parallels between Reagan and Trump than between Nixon and Trump.

So, like it or not, I think we’re going to have President Donald J. Trump. It’s his election to lose and this man is determined. I don’t see him losing.